Government Reports Primary Fiscal Surplus

Positive Economic indicators point to robust recovery in the coming year

Government meets surplus goal

In the first 5 months of 2024 the government achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 11% of GDP, a feat not seen since 2008. The new Administration has started correcting relative prices. The FX rate rose 120% in Dec-23 and has been moving at a 2% monthly clip since. Looking ahead to 2025 we forecast a robust economic recovery on the back of a more supportive business environment. Moreover, a gradual lifting of currency controls will further boost growth.

Gradual lifting of currency controls

The economy is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2025, driven by improved weather conditions, investments in the energy sector, and a gradual lifting of currency controls. GDP is expected to contract by 3.3% in 2024 before growing by 2.7% in 2025 due to high inflation and a sizeable fiscal adjustment.